Does Evidence Change Beliefs?
I read Tali Sharot's book The Influential Mind a few years back when I was a new product manager at a company. I was having a hard time convincing some co-workers to try a new way for their internal content management solution.
The company used an outdated system made in-house by the IT department, lacking features found in popular software like Adobe’s AEM, Drupal, or Sitecore. Business users disliked it, and IT couldn't improve it. The solution seemed obvious: Purchase a new software and gradually switch to it for modern features.
But it was easier said than done.
“People are not driven by facts, figures, or data but by established beliefs.”
Even though respected third-party reviewers like Gartner and Forrester praised these tools and most of the Fortune 500 used them, some at my company were convinced they could do better.
I tried using facts to persuade, but it didn't work. Some smiled as I spoke and presented slide decks, while others ignored emails and meetings. I switched to highlighting soft skills and stopped discussing reports and data, which paid off. Why?
Research consistently shows that people are not driven by facts, figures, or data but by established beliefs. Established beliefs can resist change, even when scientific evidence is provided to undermine them.
The Influential Mind is about why this happens and how to counter it.
Human Behavior in the Digital Age
Most people only read blogs, social media posts, and articles that support existing opinions and avoid clicking on links that offer a different take. Seeking out and interpreting data to strengthen our pre-established opinions is known as the "confirmation bias." It is one of the most substantial biases humans hold.
Once people have committed to a decision or opinion, it is difficult to persuade a new one. In the face of prior decisions and beliefs, social influence may fail. People discount information that contradicts previous choices. Therefore, focusing on what two people have in common rather than what they disagree about enables change. To shift opinions, we must first consider the other person's mind.
This is why, according to Sharot, offering facts and data to support a view that contradicts their view may not be the optimal approach when trying to influence others. Instead, she writes, focus on how people formed the belief you are trying to change and tackle it from the perspective of tearing down each of those beliefs.
The Influential Mind discusses four factors that come into play when we form a new belief:
Our old belief (known clinically as the "prior").
Our confidence in that old belief.
The new evidence.
Our confidence in that evidence.
Beliefs rarely stand alone; they are intertwined with a network of other beliefs and drives. To successfully elicit change, we need to identify common motivations.
Use empathy
Emotions in communication connect people's feelings and help them understand each other's perspectives. You can effectively convey your message and influence others by evoking feelings. Emotions play a powerful role in how we affect each other, as our brains are wired to quickly share emotional cues that convey vital information about our surroundings.
Provide Short-Term Incentives
Studies suggest quick praise effectively maintains habits without constant rewards. Immediate benefits surpass future consequences. Motivating change by citing potential risks like health, finance, weight, grades, or climate change is challenging due to uncertainty. People find it hard to act on uncertain or unclear future events.
Let Go to Increase Influence
Most people become stressed and anxious when their ability to control their environment is removed. To affect another person, we must overcome our instinct for control and consider the other's need for agency. This is because people resist when they perceive their agency as being removed. Studies show that you need to give people a sense of control to influence actions. Offering control, or perceived control, is ultimately the best way to get people to act.
Leverage Curiosity and Be Positive
When a message is shared positively, people are more open to it. Avoiding news because it seems negative can lead to missing important information. Some prefer staying ignorant to maintain positive thoughts.
To make people listen, change how you talk about info to show its value and inspire them with positive stats. If you have information that others need, point out what's missing. If it can improve their lives, explain how. Overall, rephrase your message to give hope, not fear.
Be Aware of the Emotional State
A person's emotions influence their response to your words. Depending on their state, emotions can sway from convinced to unaffected. Emotional cues determine attention in different states, which is key to understanding the effectiveness of fear campaigns.
It's important to align our views with the other person’s feelings. Consider delaying a talk until they're in a better mood.
Be Aware Others Are Watching
The human brain is engineered to acquire knowledge within a social context. We learn almost everything from observing other people's behavior. While we like to see ourselves as different and unique, we are quick to adopt the views and preferences of those around us.
Our instinct is to imitate the choices of others because we assume that others have information we do not. However, other people's decisions can stem from considerations that are irrelevant to us. We need to be careful when following others' choices, mindful that they may not be right for us.
People observe not only your choices but also the consequences you experience as a result of those choices. This is why rewarding people for good behavior and punishing them for bad behavior has widespread consequences; it affects not only the person praised but also everyone watching.
Be Wary of Groupthink
Studies showed that when people are told the views of others up front, only about 30% of individuals will voice a different view, resulting in a misleading conclusion that the group has a consensus.
There are numerous examples of ideas that were once accepted by the majority of society and later overwhelmingly rejected (the world is flat, the sun revolves around the earth, women should not go to college or vote, etc). Yet, our gut often tells us to go with the majority.
When making decisions, we often revert to a straightforward strategy of weighing everyone's opinion equally, regardless of differences in people's reliability and expertise. The problem is that, in many instances, people are simply not equal in their skills and knowledge.
“People are simply not equal in their skills and knowledge.”
I recommend reading The Influential Mind. This book proved to be incredibly valuable in helping me gain insight into the areas where my efforts to influence others were effective and where they fell short, along with the reasons behind these outcomes.