Future of AI
The Wall Street Journal recently interviewed several experts to understand what the world of AI will look like in 2030. Recent fundraising has pushed valuations for OpenAI and Perplexity to $157B and $8B, respectively, making now an excellent time to see what all this money will buy.
More of the Same
A general theme was that AI, like the evolution of smartphones, will slow. Improvements in image generation (perhaps no more six-fingered hands?) will refine user experiences. However, the experts suggested that the core functionality of AI might not see significant leaps.
Why?
Current AI models have essentially ingested the entire internet. From 2020 to 2022, AI made impressive strides because it had vast data to feed on. But now, the well is drying up, and there’s simply less new data available for these models to learn from. As a result, innovation has slowed until someone finds a better way to teach LLMs beyond stealing copyrighted material.
This trend aligns with what I’ve observed and heard from peers across different industries. Many companies heavily invested in AI integration, embedding it into apps and tools. However, these companies have struggled to justify further investment after the initial phase. The costs remain, yet the customer base and revenue haven't grown enough to support ongoing AI expansion.
“There is a risk that the AI investment bubble may soon burst, which will leave many people rushing for the exits; it may take years to regroup,” Mucus wrote in the article.
Uneven Impact Across Industries
Erik Brynjolfsson agreed that the transformation was uneven. “Over half the Fortune 500 vanished, replaced by a wave of new titans, including an unprecedented number of trillion-dollar enterprises.” He wrote that AI revolutionized some tasks, like coding, while others remained largely unaffected.
As a tech writer, I’ve found AI tools helpful for grammar checks, idea generation, and content validation. However, the technology hasn’t made my job obsolete; I’m still receiving recruiter inquiries. This indicates that while AI is changing how we work, it’s far from eliminating all creative roles.
A More Optimistic Outlook
Alex Singla was more optimistic, saying that by 2030, AI will be more integrated into companies and that every employee will access it regularly and seamlessly. I am unsure that this is a significant advancement, as I am doing that today for menial tasks.
Final Thoughts
The article provides a fascinating look at AI's current and future state, with insights from multiple experts in fields like medicine, ethics, and business. If you're curious about AI's potential trajectory and wider implications, it's certainly worth reading.